More customers is the start. Profitable repeat growth is the work.

For e-commerce and D2C brands

When ad-platform returns look healthy but cash contribution does not, reconcile new-customer spend with discounts, product cost, fulfilment, payment fees and returns. Then inspect the journey from product discovery to payment and the first-to-second-order cohort. Repeat-purchase timing depends on the product; a replenishment business and a durable-goods brand should not share a blanket retention target.

• Acquisition: agree allowable CAC and the payback window before increasing spend.
• Conversion: locate checkout or offer friction before proposing a page-wide redesign.
• Retention: compare customers at equal age and test a useful next purchase, not blanket discounting.

For consumer apps and subscriptions

A download, a trial start and a customer receiving value are different events. Define the activation behaviour and its observation window, then inspect onboarding, trial-to-paid conversion and retention separately. For subscriptions, distinguish voluntary cancellation from failed-payment recovery; a successful retry is not proof that the product retained a satisfied customer.

• Activation: instrument the first useful outcome and identify where users stall.
• Monetisation: assess paywall and trial changes against refunds and retained customers.
• Lifecycle: coordinate messages around behaviour, eligibility and consent.

What a first engagement produces

We agree one business question, an input checklist and an evaluation window. A diagnostic produces a measurement map and prioritised constraints. A sprint adds a test brief, implementation responsibilities and an outcome review. You keep the assumptions and decision log, including what the evidence cannot establish.

• Useful inputs: aggregated channel spend, order or subscription cohorts, funnel counts and cost definitions.
• Early-stage alternative: qualitative customer evidence and small channel tests when traffic is insufficient.
• Not a fit for guaranteed ROAS, guaranteed virality, or scaling spend without a credible baseline.

Practical decision guide / Original editorial method

Which consumer-growth problem should you investigate first?

Start with the point where customer behaviour stops producing a viable business outcome. More orders, more downloads and more subscriptions require different evidence. The following is a proposed diagnostic, not a description of another client engagement.

1. Orders grow but cash contribution falls

   Reconcile realised sales after refunds with product cost, fulfilment, payment fees and acquisition spend. Split first-time and returning customers, but do not subtract acquisition cost twice. If the first order loses money, state exactly how many repeat orders, at what contribution, are needed within the chosen payback horizon. A projected lifetime value is not cash already earned.

2. Traffic grows but first purchase stalls

   Map product view, cart, checkout and confirmed order with explicit event definitions. Inspect device, offer and payment failures before rewriting the whole journey. A session-level checkout ratio and a customer-level purchase rate have different denominators; preserve the chosen denominator throughout the comparison.

3. Trials grow but retained subscribers do not

   Define the first useful outcome, trial eligibility and a mature retention window. Separate customers who cancel from those whose payment fails. Check refunds and support burden when a paywall change improves immediate conversion; otherwise the team may be selling a promise the product cannot deliver.

Apply it carefully

Synthetic decision: a first order contributes €24 before acquisition, while acquisition costs €36. The €12 gap is not solved by reporting a higher ROAS. Two later orders contributing €6 each would cover it before overhead, but only if they actually occur within the cash horizon and their lifecycle costs are already included.

Use aggregated, anonymised inputs first. Product category, replenishment cycle and cash capacity determine the evaluation window; there is no universal healthy repeat rate or CAC target.

• Work through the repeat-purchase economics
• Read the existing checkout case and its evidence limits

Explore the work and methods

• E-commerce checkout case: intervention, measurement and limitations
• Try the contribution-profit scenario calculator
• Build a cohort-based retention strategy
• Connect creative testing to a repeatable process
• Still finding early traction? Explore startup support

Client case results are engagement-specific observations, not forecasts. Methods and tools explain their assumptions and limitations.

Start small. Make the next step concrete.

Growth diagnostic

When the problem is unclear.

A baseline review, a constraint map and a prioritised investigation plan.

Bring the customer journey, available reports and the decision you need to make.

Focused growth sprint

When one bottleneck needs hands-on work.

A scoped acquisition, conversion or retention experiment, with measurement and a decision log.

We agree the test, implementation owner, access and evaluation window before starting.

Ongoing growth partnership

When your team needs a consistent operating rhythm.

A prioritised backlog, regular experiment reviews and support turning findings into execution.

Scope depends on team capacity; fractional leadership is available where appropriate.

Scope, timing and fees are agreed together; no outcome is guaranteed.